ABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of abnormal 15-minute retention rate of indocyanine green (ICG R15) (≥10%) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and to construct a nomogram model, and to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the nomogram model.Methods:The clinical data of 190 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Zhengzhou University People's Hospital from December 2017 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 148 males and 42 females, aged (57.8±9.9) years. According to ICG R15, the patients were divided into ICG R15 normal group ( n=134, ICG R15<10%) and ICG R15 abnormal group ( n=56, ICG R15≥10%). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of abnormal ICG R15, and the nomogram model was established. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and C-index, and the model was verified by calibration curve and decision analysis curve. Results:Abnormal ICG R15 group the proportion of liver cirrhosis, albumin ≤35 g/L, hemoglobin ≤110 g/L, platelet count ≤100×10 9/L, prothrombin time >13 s, alanine aminotransferase >40 U/L, aspartate aminotransferase >40 U/L, total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L, and the largest tumor diameter >5.0 cm, spleen volume >383.1 cm 3, spleen volume to of non-tumor liver volume (SNLR) >0.276 and liver tumor volume >117.2 cm 3 were higher than that of ICG R15 normal group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that liver cirrhosis ( OR=3.89, 95% CI: 1.28-11.80, P=0.016), spleen volume >383.1 cm 3( OR=5.17, 95% CI: 1.38-19.38, P=0.015), SNLR >0.276 ( OR=5.54, 95% CI: 1.44-21.26, P=0.013) and total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L( OR=10.20, 95% CI: 1.88-55.39, P=0.007) increased the risk of abnormal ICG R15. A nomogram model was constructed based on the above risk factors. The C-index of the model was 0.915 (95% CI: 0.872-0.957), and the area under the ROC curve predicted by the nomogram model was 0.915 (95% CI: 0.871-0.958). The calibration curve showed that the correlation index of the abnormal ICG R15 predicted by the nomogram was similar to actual situation. Decision analysis curve showed high returns. Conclusion:Liver cirrhosis, spleen volume >383.1 cm 3, SNLR>0.276 and total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L were indepentlent risk factors for abnormal ICG R15 in patients with hepatocellur carcinoma. The clinical prediction model of ICG R15 abnormality constructed by nomogram has good prediction efficiency, which can provide a reference for evaluating preoperative liver reserve function of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.